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Chair: Ravi Bhoothalingam
Panellists: Sham Bathija, Amin Saikal, Abbas Maleki, Tsedendorj Bumkhorol, Aftab Kazi and Mehran Khamisizadeh.
Mr. Sham Bathija highlighted some recent positive developments in Afghanistan which includes the creation of democratic institutions, providing basic amnesties to citizens and empowering women. He argued that it is necessary to reduce the country’s overdependence on foreign funds and that the need was to promote agriculture on account of food security being a critical concern in Afghanistan. He dwelled on the country’s geographically central location in the region and was of the opinion that its potential to become a vital cog in Asian connectivity is yet to be fully explored. Moreover, Mr. Bathija deliberated on the need for a regional economic strategy in order to ensure political stability and prosperity of Afghanistan. Therefore, the New Silk Route and other mechanisms like the SAFTA are of importance to the country.
Prof. Amin Saikal highlighted Afghanistan’s geostrategic potential to act as a land-bridge for economic, trade, and cultural cooperation between Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East. Its location at the crossroad of these regions gives it a unique position to act as a hub of connectivity in support of harnessing and maximising inter-regional human and material resources for cross-regional common good. To realize its potential, in pursuit of its own stability and prosperity as well those of these regions, Afghanistan has joined a number of regional and inter-regional organizations and processes over the last decade. In the process, it has sought to reconcile, rather than dwell on, its political differences with various neighbours. However, its efforts are instrumentally thwarted by its own domestic problems and those on its border with Pakistan, complications of the great power game and serious differences and disputes between its neighbours. Therefore, these factors are a major impediment in Afghanistan’s potential to emerge as a locomotive for inter-regional cooperation.
Prof. Abbas Maleki deliberated on the 21st century being the century of regionalism, as against the previous two centuries that were predominated by ideas of nationalism and imperialism. Regional organizations have acquired a new relevance during the last two decades, particularly when it concerns peace, security, development and the prevention or mitigation of conflict. However, regional organizations do have inherent weaknesses in the form of lack of common values, contested sovereignty, overlapping responsibilities and the presence of a dominant regional power.
Prof. Maleki dwelled on Iran’s foreign policy which he termed as pragmatic and aimed to avoid major upheaval and confrontation. Iran’s core foreign policy concerns are regional stability, energy security, unified Iraq which is not a security threat to the region, regional hegemony (especially economic and cultural) within its sphere of influence and rivalry with US in ‘remote areas and not in near abroad’. He argued that Iran’s approach to its neighbours is through a prism of culture, politics, economy and so on and there has been a gradual shift in its focus from Middle East to the West Asia. Iran has objected to the emergence of an international system dominated by a superpower and instead prefers a multipolar world. Based on new realities which include the US policy of isolation and containment of Iran, Iranian leaders have concluded that Iran’s only viable approach in international relations is to become the “indispensable regional player in the region”. Iran’s geographical position, culture, political hierarchy, economic stature and military muscle give it the confidence to play a leading or pivotal role in regions across the Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Caspian Basin. A very interesting proposal of leasing/renting out 56 ports at Oman Sea to the five landlocked Central Asian countries and Afghanistan has been discussed.
Dr. Bumkhorol argued that energy scarcity in the western region of Mongolia, part of which falls within the greater Central Asian region, can be overcome by active cooperation with the Central Asian Countries. She highlighted the possibility of utilizing revenues from exploitation of Mongolia’s natural resources to fund major energy projects with Central Asian Republics. Projects that can be undertaken include construction of a thermal electric power plant near Khushuut mine, development of oil and gas transportation pipelines from China to Khovd and Govi-Altai and building oil refinery and gas distribution systems.
Mr. Mehran Khamisizadeh gave an overview of some of the key connectivity projects undertaken by Iran. These included the Chabahar-Zahedan-Mashhad route and the Almaty-Bandar Abbas corridor.
Prof. Aftab Kazi coined a new word “geopolinomics” to describe the recent developments in Central Asia. He argued that geopolinomics “is a spatially oriented region-specific analytical model that identifies hitherto ignored historical, economic and cultural links responsible for successful trade during ancient and medieval times that continue to play an equally important role in the concurrent geopolitical environment”. ‘Geopolinomics’ derives its strength from culture, history and economics and is more inter-disciplinary in nature. Pressing issues in the form of need for energy pipelines, climate change, cross-continental routes of trade, terrorism and space security have all contributed towards a new form of regional interdependence. Dr. Kazi argued that while geopolitics is influenced by external powers and derives its strength from realism, ‘geopolinomics’ is determined by regional countries need to cooperate over pressing regional issues. He was of the opinion that ‘geopolinomics’ can ensure security and a united future for the Central Asian region. Dr. Kazi deliberated on the Central Asia-Indus basin corridor being an important catalyst for future growth and did not foresee any major conflict between India and Pakistan.
The discussions brought to light the following major points:
a) Partner states of TAPI pipeline want the project to be implemented but major security concerns remain.
b) Current instability in Afghanistan may delay the implementation of the TAPI pipeline on account of intra Afghan politics being detrimental to such projects.
c) Energy swap agreements can be a better alternative to pipeline projects. This needs to be studied and researched in detail.
d) Empires have successfully implemented ‘geopolinomics’ in the past and there is no reason why it cannot be implemented today especially on account of mutual benefits which participant members can avail of.