As human history shows future is always uncertain
. Even so, there are forecasts on the possibility of Asian countries like China and India overtaking the US by 2030 and 2050 respectively in the economic sphere with agencies like the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Goldman Sachs already predicting the decline of the US and the rise of Asia. Whether Asian states will continue with the present pace of their economic growth or lose momentum needs to be examined in order to plan for the uncertainties and sudden breaks that may materialize in the future.
Identified amongst the potential drivers of future change are economic growth, climate change, demographics, urbanization, migration, resource competition, technology, military modernization, globalization, nationalism and identity politics, radical movements, extremism and terrorism, etc.
The objective of the 12th Asian Security Conference 2010 is to explore in some depth key drivers of change in Asia and examine possible trends, scenarios and alternatives, which can affect geopolitics and security environment. The idea is not so much to engage in an exercise to predict the future as it is to scan the emerging geo-political terrain and offer some guide posts to planners, policy makers and those interested in international politics and security.
The conference will have nine inter-related sessions focused on understanding the key drivers of change and imagining alternative scenarios of Asia’s future. While the timeline of 2030 is a useful method indicating a particular frame of reference, it is not expected to be viewed rigidly and scholars could make their projections for Asia’s future covering roughly above the period.
The clutch of inter-related issues identified for the different sessions are:
Session I: Economic Growth, Globalisation, Poverty and Equity.
Session II : Climate Change, Environment, Energy, Water and Resources.
Session III: Demography, Migration and Urbanization.
Session IV : Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society.
Session V : Asian Militaries and the Future of War.
Session VI : WMD Weapons and International Security.
Session VII : Society, Identity, Religion, and Governance.
Session VIII : Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives.
Session IX : Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios.
The key questions addressed across the sessions could include among others:
- What are the key challenges likely to be faced by Asian Countries in 2030?
- How will the assessment of comprehensive national power change by 2030?
- What are the potential areas of conflict that must be considered for Asia in 2030?
- What kind of regional institutional frameworks are needed to avert future conflicts in Asia?
Session I
Theme: Economic Growth, Globalization, Poverty and Equity
Under the globalization process, many Asian countries with their liberal economic policies, large domestic savings and substantial private capital inflows have grown rapidly. Although globalization has brought economic dividends, it has also adversely impacted Asian economies. Economic disparities, downturn, and unemployment are a few negative consequences.
Some of the questions that could be addressed during the session are:-
- What are the likely trajectories of economic growth and globalisation in Asia? What would be Asia’s economic and trade scenario in 2030?
- How would projected trends affect poverty & equity?
- What mechanisms are states likely to adopt to ward off the negative consequences of globalization by 2030? How will “protectionism” affect the forces of globalization?
- How will the weak economies safeguard their interests amidst the presence of global forces in 2030?
- What will be the consequences of intra and inter-state disparities?
Session II
Theme: Climate Change, Environment, Energy, Water and Resources
Climate change is regarded as one of the gravest non-traditional security threats faced by the international community today. Climate change may have profound implications for environment; energy; water resources; human settlements, urbanization, infrastructure and even military operations.
The session is proposed to be devoted to addressing, inter-alia, the following key questions:-
- How will climate change impact Asia and its international politics?
- Will resource depletion result in conflict or cooperation among the states in Asia by 2030?
- How will climate and resource depletion impact regime stability in Asia? Will it aid extremism in the region?
- What kind of challenges is Asia likely to face in meeting its Energy, Water and other critical resources requirement?
Session III
Theme: Demography, Migration and Urbanization
In the last few decades, most countries in Asia have experienced a demographic transition more rapid than any other region. Falling mortality and fertility rates, declining youth dependency rate and rising old-age dependency rate, etc. will have potentially serious economic implications for the region’s future. Spatial mobility is predicted to be on the rise in Asia in the coming years, particularly in the spheres of occupational mobility and rural to urban mobility. If such prediction becomes a reality, most of the countries in Asia, including India and China will cease to be rural majority countries in the next 30/40 years. In the long run, all these will eventually have negative impact on food security for the highly populous countries like India and China.
The key questions for this session could include:
- What are the expected demographic patterns for Asia in 2030?
- What are the implications of these trends for Asian countries’ economic development?
- What will be the impact of demographic trends and migration on intra-state or inter-state conflicts?
- How is urbanization likely to affect the continent?
Session IV:
Theme: Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society
The 20th century witnessed many significant technological breakthroughs, particularly in sectors of communication, transportation and medical sciences. The last few decades of that century were dominated by miraculous developments in information technology. From telephones to computers, cars to state-of-the art aircrafts, high altitude balloons to spacecrafts, e-dictionaries to Internet and vaccines to stem cell research dominated the field of technology development. The 21st century began with the birth of aerospace technology and ended up revolutionizing the war doctrines of various militaries. New technologies in the areas of information technology, space, solar power, robotics, nanotechnology, biotechnology, genetic engineering etc. are likely to shape the future of humankind.
The key questions to be addressed in this session could be:-
- Which technologies are likely to prove strategically significant? How will they shape the future?
- What will be the impact of these technologies on Asian strategic scenarios in 2030?
- How will they impact war? Can they be harnessed for peace?
Session V:
Theme: Asian Militaries and the Future of War
As the ideological fencing of the Cold War period withered away, primordial fault lines have raised their head in the last two decades giving birth to multiple numbers of non-state actors who have continuously defied the modern nation states. As a result, at present, state centric inter-state conflicts are increasingly being replaced by intra-state cultural, psychological or economic conflicts initiated by non-state actors. The future prospects of security therefore appear uncertain in which both state as a conventional source of security threat, and non-state actors – independently or with the covert support of some states–will play their parts. Since the changes that have been observed in the post-Cold War era are still in the process of unfolding themselves, the future course of wars and the shape of militaries remain valid subjects of study.
The key questions that could be addressed in this session are:-
- What will be the nature of conflicts in the next two decades?
- Will local and limited wars prove their utility under the shadow of nuclear deterrence?
- How will Asian Militaries look like in 2030? What might be the inter-state balances among major powers?
Session VI:
Theme: WMD Weapons and International Security
The spread of WMDs-chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) - poses one of the most serious threats to international security because of their capacity for catastrophic destruction through a single attack. A number of nuclear powers (China, India, Pakistan, North Korea) and the world’s most advanced threshold nuclear states (South Korea, Japan and Taiwan) are situated in Asia. Over the years, despite various efforts to check nuclear proliferation, the technological barriers of acquiring nuclear weapons appear to be weakening. In fact, for even weak and isolated countries like North Korea, nuclear weapons have come to be treated as the only strategic ‘equalizer’ available to them to check US influence in the region.
The key questions to be addressed in this session could be:-
- How would nuclear weapons affect security environment in 2030?
- What are the likely prospects of nuclear/CBRN terrorism in 2030?
- Is there a prospect for nuclear disarmament?
Session VII:
Theme: Society, Identity, Religion and Governance
While the end of the Cold War diminished the role of ideology in international politics, issues of society, identity, religion and governance have come to the forefront. Cultural fault-lines appear to be growing and religion in particular has acquired centre-stage in the anti-modernity and anti-modern-state discourse. Asian societies are seriously grappling with the challenge of reconciling individual and civil rights and yet developing as a strong state without paying a heavy price for their stability and prosperity.
Key questions for this session could be:-
- What would be the relations between state and society in Asia in 2030?
- What will be the nature of governance in Asia in 2030?
- Will the modern-states be able to withstand pressures created by social and cultural actors in 2030?
- Is religion going to be a prime identity and defining principle in Asia in 2030?
- Will the terrorist organizations establish themselves as sole and authentic spokespersons of religion in 2030?
Session VIII:
Theme: Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives
The 21st century is projected to be the Asian century, as future peace and stability in Asia and the world are likely to be determined by the policies to be pursued by five powers (India, China, Japan, Russia and the US), for whom Asia is the meeting ground. The US’s extensive political, economic and security interests, and its overwhelming military presence in Asia makes it an important player in the region’s politics. As a major producer and exporter of critical energy resources, Russia also enjoys a major role in determining Asian security. In recent years, Japan too has begun to play a major role in regional and global affairs commensurate with its economic status. The rise of China and India, and their expanding strategic reach and ambitions on the global stage could result in competition between them over power, influence and energy resources.
The key questions to be addressed in this session could be:-
- Will economic issues continue to be the driving force in determining Asian security in 2030?
- Will relations between Asian states (especially India and China) be cooperative or conflictual in 2030? What will be the role of regional organizations in managing Asia’s rise?
- Will the US presence in the region diminish or continue to play a more stabilizing role in 2030?
- How might other powers influence geopolitics in Asia?
Session IX:
Theme: Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios
This session will attempt to analyse the key factors/drivers (of change) impinging upon Asia’s future in 2030 based on the discussions on themes of the conference in the previous sessions. The identification of the key factors/drivers will be utilized to project and describe, if not predict, three to four future scenarios for Asia in 2030. These scenarios would have a high degree of uncertainty tagged to them. No matter how refined our methods in social science may become, we cannot escape from the fact that all our knowledge is based on the past and present while all our policy decisions are about the future. Therefore, studying the future is mostly an activity based on conjectures. In this regard, the method of scenario-building could be employed to grasp a whole range of forces, factors, and possibilities that we could take note of while planning for the future of Asia in the next two decades.
