Maintaining security and stability in Central Asia seems to be a key pillar of Russia’s Afghan calculus. By positioning itself as an interlocutor of the Taliban, Russia aims to project itself as an indispensable pole in resolving global and regional issues.
Russia’s policy on Afghanistan has witnessed considerable transformation during the last two decades. This has allowed Moscow to change its stance towards the Taliban from confrontation to accommodation. The article explains Russia’s foreign policy trajectory towards Afghanistan, exploring the key determinants, approaches and potential outcomes. Drawing mainly on secondary sources as well as the statements of officials and experts, the article also seeks to highlight the recent trends in Russia’s Afghan policy.
In December 2015, the Russian Foreign Ministry revealed that Russia was engaging in intelligence sharing with the Taliban to counter the growing presence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan.
Russia’s efforts to differentiate between the Islamic State and Taliban are a mistake given that both groups share a similar ideology, albeit with slight variations.
Russia seems both happy as well as worried about US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Concerns about Central Asian security apart, now with the sectarian strife in West Asia flaring up, the Russian anxieties would heighten about possible spread of ISIS type assertion along its southern belt.
The historical baggage weighing on the Russo-Afghan relationship is apparently in the process of being jettisoned. The two countries have been cautiously reaching out and engaging each other for quite some time now. Afghan President Hamid Karzai's state visit to Moscow on 20–21 January 2011 – the first by an Afghan head of state in more than two decades – could be perceived as a major step forward.
Deciphering Russia’s Afghan Policy
Maintaining security and stability in Central Asia seems to be a key pillar of Russia’s Afghan calculus. By positioning itself as an interlocutor of the Taliban, Russia aims to project itself as an indispensable pole in resolving global and regional issues.