The Taliban spring offensive is aimed at exploiting the situation and driving home the advantage. The present lull in coalition operations and indecision on the future outlook of international forces is adding to the Taliban’s advantage.

The security deficit can be filled to a large extent by Afghanistan’s neighbours if they can be persuaded to accept the responsibility, including by contributing troops to a UN-mandated peacekeeping force.

As the Afghans and the world look towards a new dawn on 1 January 2015, there are some things that stand out clearly and have to be recognised by both the Afghans as well as the international community.

As India plans to stay engaged in Afghanistan beyond 2014, Iran has emerged as a critical component of India’s Afghan policy. Despite US pressures, India needs to adopt a pragmatic approach vis-à-vis Iran and engage it effectively to protect its vital security and geo-political interests in Afghanistan.

Unless the Central Asian states, China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia jointly contribute towards ensuring stability, Afghanistan is likely to fall to the Taliban again or even break up.

Where does Pakistan figure in ‘Afghan good enough’ if Pakistan’s centrality in the Western approach is taken into account? Not working towards a ‘Pakistan good enough’ would simply mean that ‘Afghan good enough’ is not ‘good enough’.