The coming of Taliban to power in Afghanistan could upset the geopolitical applecart in Central Asia and adjoining regions. The growing association of radical Uyghur groups like the ETIM, with IS-K and the spread of jihadist operations in Central Asia could have significant implications for regional and international powers, particularly for China and its ambitious plans for Silk Road imperialism.
Beijing’s stance on Afghanistan’s political crisis and its approach towards the Taliban regime is a critical variable that will shape the geometrics of the China–Taliban–Pakistan nexus versus India and the West.
Vishal Chandra replies: It is precisely due to China’s known proximity to Pakistan that its engagement with Afghanistan is considered as significant. Beijing’s increased diplomatic and political engagement with Kabul should be seen as a welcome development, particularly in terms of strengthening the position of the democratically-elected and UN-recognised national government in Afghanistan. Both India and China enjoy a very stable, robust and a dynamic bilateral relationship with Afghanistan.
Through this white paper, China has affirmed its regional ambitions and aims to shape the regional security agenda in the Asia Pacific on its stated terms.
In this final part of the Policy Paper series, P Stobdan deliberates that if India and China make a calibrated move for working together in Afghanistan, the outcome could be more harmonizing than conflicting. So when India reviews its post-2014 Afghan policy, the China factor should not be seen in a zero-sum perception for many in the West may press India playing a countervailing role to China.
Unless the Central Asian states, China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia jointly contribute towards ensuring stability, Afghanistan is likely to fall to the Taliban again or even break up.
India has been fairly successful in firewalling the radical blowback emanating from Pakistan in the past and need not be overly worried about the impending US withdrawal.
Post an American exit, China is likely to increase its investments in Afghanistan, provide employment to hundreds of unskilled Afghan workers, and assume the role of regional stabiliser.
The ETIM Question: Taliban’s Moment of Truth
The coming of Taliban to power in Afghanistan could upset the geopolitical applecart in Central Asia and adjoining regions. The growing association of radical Uyghur groups like the ETIM, with IS-K and the spread of jihadist operations in Central Asia could have significant implications for regional and international powers, particularly for China and its ambitious plans for Silk Road imperialism.