Saurav Pandey asked: How does the current political and security turmoil in Pakistan affect India’s security?

Nazir Ahmad Mir replies: Pakistan has perennially faced domestic political crises and internal security challenges. In the ongoing political and economic crisis, politicians are entirely focused on safeguarding their personal and party interests. This is negatively impacting the economically weaker sections the most. To deal with the economic challenges, Islamabad has been seeking the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and ‘friendly countries’ like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China. So far, though, there has been no improvement in the economy. 

Baloch separatists have long been fighting for their rights and independence from Pakistan, given the failure of the Pakistani state to address their historical and political grievances. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) faces the issue of religious radicalism where the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is fighting to impose the sharia (Islamic) rule. Given that these provinces share long and porous borders with Iran and Afghanistan, those two countries are likely to bear the brunt of militants, terrorists or refugees crossing over into their territories. 

The Pakistani state has taken action against groups like TTP in the past and had succeeded to some extent in curbing their terror activities. The country’s ambiguous policy towards terrorism and adopting such distinctions as ‘good terrorist, bad terrorist’, though, has hamstrung its strategy to deal with such groups effectively. 

Pakistan’s ongoing political and security challenges are unlikely to impact India’s security in the near term. However, if the situation further worsens and the Pakistani state is unable to stabilize its economy and curb the rising security challenges, it can have negative implications, not just for India but for regional countries like Iran and Afghanistan as well. 

Posted on 25 January 2023 

Views expressed are of the expert and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or the Government of India.