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Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, Tibet and Implications for South Asian Security
The paper presenter’s aim was to create a new discourse that treats Tibet as a regional, if not a global, commons that has wide-ranging implications for all of South Asia from being a source of many important rivers to controlling the Monsoons. Such a discourse that highlights Tibet as being crucial for a wider humanity will put pressure on China to review its activities in Tibet which is resulting in severe ecological degradation. The most pressing problem seems to be the impact on the rivers that flow downwards into the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia which will all face a considerable reduction in runoff with the receding of glaciers.
The speaker looked at the following 3 aspects through the course of his paper:
- The impact of human activity in Tibet and the changing climate on the countries dependent on this ecosystem.
- The diversion of rivers originating in Tibet by China.
- Policies for co-operation and peaceful resolution of conflict.
While elaborating on the first point, it was pointed out how the urbanization of Tibet with infrastructure building, extension of railways and roads, and conversion of grasslands will result in demographic changes that will impact the local ways of living. All these factors will, in turn, change the nature of the local ecosystem. For example, the nomads’ lifestyle ensured that the delicate balance of the fragile ecosystem was not disturbed.
Glaciers are an important aspect of this ecosystem. However, there is much contention over whether or not they are melting at a rapid rate (or melting at all). This is due to a dearth of information or facts regarding them. India has around 9,575 glaciers but research has been done on only 25-30 of them. Thus, the difficulty of drawing any definite conclusions. However, the presenter insisted that the people of the Himalayas have noticed the change and he quoted Chewang Norphel who said “I am the scientific data”, i.e. one doesn’t need a scientific authority to certify what is obvious to the people living there.”
Diversion of rivers and construction of dams by the Chinese on rivers like Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) or the tributaries of Indus and Sutlej will adversely affect the lower riparian states. China’s increased control of river water will mean an increased security threat for the others.
The speaker asserted that a major obstacle to studying the impact of the diversion of rivers is posed by the lack of scientific data that is available in the public domain. The lack of transparency in terms of information results in analysts having to make intelligent guesses.
Incorporating China in the Indus Water Treaty is one of the solutions proposed for peaceful co-operation as well as a consolidated effort by all the countries of the region to conduct scientific studies on the environmental degradation of the ecosystem caused due to man-made activity and climate change.
Ultimately, the crux of the presenter’s argument was that a discourse that regards Tibet as a regional (or global) common should be created in order to prevent any adverse effects on other lower riparian countries that would result from unilateral Chinese diversion of rivers in Tibet.
Shri M.S. Menon made some pertinent observations on the issues brought up in this paper. Most importantly he highlighted the confusion regarding global warming, climate change, and glacier melts since the causes and effects are “not very clear”. Not to mention, scientific data can be manipulated to suit particular agendas. He also pointed out that studies regarding the role vegetation cover (including that in Tibet) plays on monsoons are incomplete.
The presenter’s fear of Chinese diversion of rivers and its security implications were reinforced by Shri Menon. Unlike B.G. Verghese who claims that it is near impossible for China to divert water from these rivers due to the terrain, Menon asserted that China was more than capable of accomplishing such a feat. His remedy for this problem is that India should build a dam in Arunachal Pradesh in order to control the flow of the Brahmaputra.
The lack of data on the water flow of rivers should also be addressed. In border areas where civilians are not allowed, the army should step in to take measurements. In terms of exchange of data between India and China, the best area to bring up this issue would be in forums concerning biodiversity since they are signatories of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and project an image of concern for the environment in this regard. He also supported the idea of a reworked IWT that included China.
Dr. A.P. Dimri discussed the technical aspects of climate change and how the Himalayas play a major role in controlling the monsoons, which is why the topography of Tibet should be looked at in more detail. He also talked about the need to look at regional dynamics of climate change. Cycles of heating and cooling have always existed, however, what we should be worried about is the anthropogenic forces that are contributing to climate change.
The discussant explained how the debate around the melting of glaciers is extremely complicated and cannot have a simple answer. Glaciers are viscoplastic in nature. So what might be considered as glaciers melting might actually be a geological phenomenon of glaciers just breaking up. A lot more work needs to be done in this area before anything concrete can be ascertained. He also mentioned that satellite imagery is not entirely reliable data since it does not cover the area throughout the season so one cannot make accurate interpretations.
The internal discussants, Jaganath Panda and Avinash Godbole, also raised important points. The former talked about the Chinese strategy that includes the restructuring of the industrialization process and a new focus on local industries in order to show that Tibetan industries are not being destroyed. He also discussed the reasons behind why China wanted to divert water in terms of geography, social and national tension particularly with the drying up of the Yellow river. He proposed SAARC and the UN as good forums in which India can engage with China. Godbole put forward two critical questions. First, if Chinese activity in Tibet affects rivers’ flow to India, it should also affect rivers flowing into China; so, why would China want to harm their own water resources? Secondly, can science and politics be separated? Even scientific data can be manipulated for particular ends.
The Chair, Arvind Gupta, summed up the discussions by claiming that we should “learn to live with uncertainty” and evolve precautionary principles rather than keep waiting for concrete data to act. He asserted that China feels secure with its Tibet policies and the diversions of the rivers. It becomes an important strategic tool to engage India in larger Sino-Indian relations.
The report has been prepared by Shubha Kamala Prasad, an intern at IDSA.