Indo-Bangladesh: Opportunities Ahead

The spectacular victory of the Awami League-led Grand Coalition in the Ninth Jatiya Sangsad elections held on December 29, 2008 marks a landmark development in the annals of Bangladesh. This offers an important opportunity for India to shore up the recent gains in bilateral relations and take them to a new trajectory. After a period of prolonged indifference during the tenure of the previously elected government, the 23-month tenure of the caretaker government saw relations progressing considerably. Though several bilateral issues remain unresolved, the general atmosphere has been congenial for both sides to address some of the problems that were plaguing bilateral relations.

The Awami victory cannot be more opportune. Historically, bilateral relations have improved considerably when the Awami League has been in power. Both sides have been understanding and accommodative of each other’s concerns and problems. The majority secured by the Awami-led coalition would enable Bangladesh to address some of the critical bilateral issues. This would require foresight and deftness on the part of India to capitalise on the opportunity to tackle critical problems facing it.

The Awami League manifesto, amongst other issues, highlights some of these foreign policy aspects as its area of focus:

1. Bangladesh will take an active role in the preservation of world peace. An independent foreign policy will be pursued in adherence to the principles of "Friendship with all and malice towards none." Friendly relationship will be maintained with India, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar, neighboring countries, in the context of further strengthening cooperation with all. Regional and sub-regional cooperation will be further strengthened including relationships with the member countries of SAARC, BIMSTEC and D-8.
2. Cooperation will be deepened and expanded with developed countries including USA, European Union, Japan and Canada. Friendly relations will be strengthened with Russia, China and member states of ASEAN.
   Initiatives will be taken for enhancing and deepening the relationship with Australia and the Pacific countries.
3. Fraternal relationship with the countries of the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait as well as Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia will be maintained. Solidarity with the Muslim Ummah and economic cooperation within the framework of OIC will be enhanced. Steps will be taken for establishing fruitful relationship with the countries of Africa and South America. A South Asian Task Force will be formed for meeting the challenge of terrorism and militancy.

The round table addressed the following questions:

• What is the way forward? Should India be proactive with the Hasina government or will such a course embarrass her? Or, should India let the Hasina government find its own level of comfort and not force the pace?
• Should India suggest a friendship treaty with Bangladesh?
• Should there be a composite dialogue with Bangladesh?
• Should India suggest a structure of dialogue with annual summit meetings?
• How should India meet Bangladesh’s concerns?
• Should India develop links with other political parties in Bangladesh?

The bilateral issues and questions raised above were discussed and debated and although no firm consensus emerged the final recommendations that were arrived at were:

Political

• India needs to engage with Bangladesh, but keeping the expectations of the common people from Awami League (AL) in mind. The AL government will have to focus on delivering its promises to its people. Main concerns for Awami League are domestic issues. A gradual process of engaging Bangladesh should be adopted.
• Quiet diplomacy with Bangladesh should be at the forefront. India should support Awami League fulfil its manifesto promises.
• ‘Awami League is pro-India’ and ‘anti Bangladesh’ was a myth created by the BNP/Jamat. Victory of AL has illustrated that people of Bangladesh accept India.
• India should keep the option open for engaging with the opposition. Maintaining good relationship with the BNP is important.

Security /Military

• Secularism and civil-military relations are two themes significant for India’s understanding while handling Bangladeshi politics. All security issues in Bangladesh are monopolized by the army. ULFA nexus with the army should be probed further.
• Establishing good relations with the Army is in India’s security interest. Institutionalize army-to-army relations between India and Bangladesh.
• Migration and operational help to insurgent groups in Bangladesh are two important concerns for India and should be tackled systematically.
• There is a problem of perception between the two countries. While India perceives Bangladesh as an infiltrator, and a safe zone for Muslim extremism, Bangladesh perceives India as a hegemon, an upper riparian state aggravating flood management problems in Bangladesh. Also, India is perceived as a safe haven for Bangladeshi criminals.
• A cost benefit analysis in political and economic terms should be made on fencing of Indian borders as the record shows that fencing has been fairly ineffective in the past years.
• Diplomacy with Bangladesh can at best be effective at people to people level. Illegal migration related to human trafficking is a significant issue. Trafficking of women and children has been taken up by BNP earlier, perhaps India could engage Bangladesh on such issues.

Economic

• India needs to balance the security and economic equations with Bangladesh.
• Focus should be more towards implementing the agreements we have with Bangladesh.
• At present the trade deficit between the two countries is glaring. While a free trade agreement with Bangladesh at the outset seems to be an attractive option, studies have shown that free trade over a long period of time would increase the deficit between the two countries.
• One should avoid the word ‘transit’ when negotiating with Bangladesh. Four issues related to transit are air, land, rail and water. India should primarily focus on water and rail issues.
• The Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade, signed in 1972, should be revisited. India does not need to negotiate with Bangladesh on these issues. Implementation of the agreements should be the main focus.
• Water issues are the central concern for the Hasina government. India should focus on this issue. Focus on de-silting and dredging of river waters along with management of water resources should be the key focus.
• Water is one issue that can be jointly taken up by both governments. Joint management of water resources is therefore extremely important.
• Bus services should be made regular and Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala uninterrupted bus service should be made operational.
• Rail transit should focus on making beneficial rail agreements. Rails are the biggest strength of the Indian economy. In fact, rail transit can never be effective unless we modernize Bangladesh’s railways. India should offer a package including training programmes as Bangladesh railways are keen in cooperating with India on the issue.
• Issue of waster resources should be solved. A main problem is that India considers the Brahmaputra basin as one, whereas Bangladesh demands that there should be three different basins of Ganga, Meghna and Brahmaputra. Examine multilateral solutions. Water problems in Bangladesh are inevitably linked to the issue of Climate Change.
• Instead of taking issues bilaterally, regional focus should be brought in, where India, Bhutan and Nepal could jointly benefit from the exercise.

Participants in the roundtable were: N.S. Sisodia, Arvind Gupta, Sreeradha Datta, Smruti Pattanaik, Anand Kumar, Sumita Kumar, Alok Bansal, Vishal Chandra, Nihar Nayak, M. Mayilvaganan, Medha Bhist, PK Gautam, Stobdan Phunchak, Veena Sikri, Partha Ghosh, J.N.Roy, Ashish Banerjee and Nityananda

Prepared by Dr. Sreeradha Datta with inputs from Dr. Medha Bisht.