There is little doubt that Asia – stretching from the Eurasian landmass to the maritime reaches of Australia and the South Pacific – is experiencing a major shift in the global balance of power. Expressions like the ‘Indo-Pacific’ and ‘Asia-Pacific’, contested they maybe, capture Asia’s expanse and dynamism. But for one brief and dramatic financial crisis in 1997, growth rates in Asia have been averaging well above the rest of the world. The rise of China along with the increasing global footprint of Russia and India in G20 and the ASEAN states soaring economies have made Asia the powerhouse and centre of gravity. Yet, Asia struggles with numerous conflicts in spite of its ‘alphabet soup’ of regional organisations and security structures.
Changes are happening fast in Asia and changing not only the geo-political landscape but also the mindset of the people who are pushing for political reforms and accountability. The global power shifts being witnessed is also potentially prising up Asia to confrontation as well as convergence as states compete. China is an important piece of the puzzle and its rise is a defining line of the changing landscape. How will China define its national interest in the future? Will it pursue an assertive, even aggressive policy in Asia to back up its territorial claims? Or will China, assured of its great power status practice moderation and restraint? Importantly, how should India and other key states in Asia respond to China’s continuous rise and influence – should the response be as a strategic competitor with a policy of confrontation or a containment approach through active cooperation?
From a strategic grand view, the balance of power is uncertain in Asia. A sizeable US military presence continues and the Obama administration´s policy involves strengthening US military alliance and strategic partnerships and simultaneously repositioning forces. China would be far from assured that the ‘rebalancing’ is not directed towards it thus opening up the region to power play and rivalry in the East China Sea and South China Sea. A resultant increase in military expenditure and modernisation and a thrust towards new technologies will spur many countries.
The numerous stress-lines and fault-lines expose Asia to many potential flash-points. Unresolved territorial issues stand between India and China, Vietnam and China, China and Russia, Russia and Japan. North Korea and Taiwan may trigger-off unmanageable crises. West Asia continues to be restive threatening to tear apart the socio-political fabric. Of the four Asian nuclear powers, North Korea and Pakistan are highly suspect nuclear proliferators involved in covert supply of missile technology. The China-Japan rivalry reveals dangerous chauvinism. At the same time, the two largest populated countries – China and India – referred to as ‘planetary powers’ surging need for energy and raw materials for its 2.5 billion people creates new areas of resource friction. Resource scarcity will not only be related to physical shortage but more possibly from failure of governance.
Asia’s economies are increasingly vital to each other and to the world with both the US and Europe continuing to post low GDP growth. The economic shift is shaping two different approaches to trade liberalization in Asia. One paved by the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the other by the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and it has to be seen how these approaches will determine the economic choices in the coming years. While, at one level, certain investment and trade barriers will continue to hinder business in Asia, at another, poverty eradication will have to remain an essence of economic growth for Asian countries. The economies in Asia have to continuously grow fast along with being sustainable and inclusive. Other challenges that equally impact the economy are an increased number of natural disasters that interrupt the supply chain, security concerns emanating from terrorism and cyber security, where hacking, espionage and lack of privacy fuel concerns for companies as well as politicians and governments.
For India, the emerging geopolitical and geo-economic trends raise questions as to how it will lock into the new continental power matrix and how it will respond and reappraise to the changes.
Asia is on the threshold of change — the known and unknown; opportunities and uncertainties abound. Such times also offer an excellent chance to concentrate on the dynamics of change, to search for new ways of understanding, and to prepare for a future that is certainly set to surprise.
Against this backdrop, the 16th annual Asian Security Conference (ASC) to be held at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, in February 2014 will deliberate the emerging strategic trends in Asia and unravel the challenges and opportunities.
Day One
Session1: Asia’s Geopolitical Future
Central to the future of stability in Asia is how the rise of China is impacting the balance of power. China is now strong enough to challenge US’ leadership in Asia. But it is not clear as to what kind of new order would emerge. One possibility is a contested order framed by US and China strategic rivalry. The Chinese dominance might push other Asian powers into alliance with US making the landscape polarized. On the other hand, the US stays engaged in Asia, without being assertive and allowing for a ‘concert of powers’ as a counter weight to China’s power in the Indo-Pacific. Regional institutions are important prescription for bolstering Asia’s stability but raises doubts on whether such multilateral structures have the capability to absorb the shocks and resolve conflicts. This session will explore Asia’s geopolitical future, the various scenarios that might emerge and the conditions for stability.
Session 2: Military Trends in Asia
While Asia has seen a growth of regional institutions yet, Asian countries’ military expenditures tell a tale of escalating security competition and the recent claims in South China Sea suggest that regional mechanisms don’t necessarily lower the temperature. China’s military budget accounts for nearly half of all the military spending in the region. Japan, on the other hand, has increased its defence spending, partly as a reality check to China and partly as a response to US defence cuts. Many of the US allies in Asia under US protection will have to accept more risks and boost their military capabilities. How will the Asian countries military modernisation impact the region? What are the perceived external threats and how is it impacting the military doctrines? What implications does the military expenditure have on future force structure and strategic posturing?
Session 3: Economic Global Shift towards Asia
The world’s economic centre of gravity has shifted to Asia with the rapid economic development seen in China, India and other Asian countries along with the economic problems experienced in Europe and the US. Urbanization will be a key trend of the rapidly growing economies in Asia. The global economic shift is bringing forth opportunities and challenges. What are the responses of key economic and political institutions in Asia, particularly in India and China? Should India follow China´s example and turn its attention towards boosting domestic consumption rather than foreign trade? Questions about how the old developed economies (the West) will react and whether Asia’s current economic model is sustainable will equally emerge. Will there be a slowing with major adjustments or a collapse? What levels of impact will the changing demography particularly the growing middle class and the aging population have on the economy? This session will examine how the changes will shape the economic and business contours in Asia?
Day 2
Session 4: Resource Stress in Asia
One of Asia’s major concerns centres on resource security. Food, energy, water and climate are intricately linked and further impacted by price, availability and quality. Population growth, urbanization, and industrialization are exacerbating resource-related stresses. Asia includes about 56 per cent of world’s population and depends on 31 per cent of arable land and by 2030 the continent will have 5 billion people. Understanding the resource dynamics is useful to the political economy particularly as competition for natural resources among Asian nations intensifies. Will it bring the continent to a dangerous crossroads of dependence, geopolitical tension and environmental degradation? What trade-offs and at what appropriate scale (regional, national, sub-national) will be required to ease resource pressure? Is the framing of resource policies particularly complementary to rights-based development approaches?
Session 5: Ocean Governance in the Indo-Pacific
With the economic power shift to Asia, the Indo-Pacific region is fast becoming the centre of trade, investment and cooperation. The region contains close to half the world’s population and provides several of the world’s most important choke-points for global commerce including the Strait of Malacca. Clearly the region is recognised for its economic dynamism and geo-strategic importance. Many inter-state disputes are maritime in nature, both due to the many unsettled maritime boundaries as a consequence of the enactment of UNCLOS, and the tendency towards unrestrained exploitation of maritime resources with little regard for territorial jurisdictions. A legal framework and multilateral agreements are critical in managing communal global resources such as the high seas but fear of regional hegemony is likely to hinder support for the establishment of ocean governance, particularly among the weaker countries. The session will discuss the legal obligations, impact of institutional arrangements and strengthening governance over maritime resources.
Session 6: Assessing Risks: Cyber and Critical Infrastructure
In today’s interconnected world, states share risks and vulnerabilities. Some of the biggest security challenges will come from the cyber space. Singapore and Indonesia have already taken steps towards setting up cyber commands. As cyber-attacks and hacktivism increase, challenges to information sharing will mount. Against this backdrop, how then will governments and policing bodies cooperate on law enforcement and sharing information? Policies towards preventions, precautions and preparedness plans will be examined. The session will also explore critical infrastructure protection and government coordination highlighting in particular the increased reliance upon technology systems in public and private infrastructure and hence vulnerability to new forms of cyberterrorism and attacks. The lens will also shift to civil-military cooperation and how ‘calling out the troops’ to combat emergencies occurs in countries.
Day 3
Session 7: India’s Response
Panel Discussion
The big question is how India is responding to the strategic changes in Asia? China sits atop the power pyramid with its physical size, military capability and economic clout that combines to assert regional dominance. Powers like India would not like to easily cede the hegemonic space to China but, at the same time, would realise that its power is pervasive and difficult to counter balance. The arrangement possibly would be for India to trade and invest intensely with China while seeking a security alliance with the US. Will India follow this path? How is India as an emerging power looked at in the region? Can India be a guarantor/balancer or will it be seen as an opponent? A careful reappraisal of Asia’s emerging strategic dynamics, a hard-headed assessment of what India’s interests are and a considered approach to fulfilling these interests should deeply engage academia and policy makers. The session will explore the pillars on which India can build a more comprehensive, forward-looking and proactive Asia policy.
