Talk on "Asia 2025: Exploring Implications for China, India and Japan"

Speaker: Dr Ganeshan Wignaraja, Executive Director, Lakshman Kadirgammar Institute (LKI), Colombo

Chair: IDSA, Shri Sujan R Chinoy, Director General

Venue: Board Room # 104, First Floor

Abstract

Asia’s resilience since the global financial crisis, on top of its historic economic success, has sparked interest in understanding its future. However, dark clouds hang over the region’s economic horizon including a growth recession in China, an escalation in the trade war between China and the US, a rise in global long-term interest rates, debt and capital outflows, geopolitical tensions and population ageing. The prospects of the giant economies - China, India and Japan – are in the spotlight. The region is diverse, with countries of varying population size, geography and economic dynamism as well as different vulnerabilities. While the growth of many Asian countries remains strong, in 2025 there are also likely to be several middle-income countries (MICs) with vulnerability to income shocks and rising income inequality. What these trends mean for the region and what policies are necessary to sustain Asia’s rise over the medium-term are fundamental questions.

This lecture will examine the macroeconomic outlook for Asian economies and the main drivers, with a focus on the prospects of China, India, Japan and the MICs. It will dissect the influence of key mega-trends like (i) the performance of China-centered global value chains (GVCs), (ii) the likely impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and (iii) the persistence of pockets of poverty and vulnerability amid prosperity. Tackling these issues at national level with tailored development partner strategies will help improve the economic prospects for Asia. Some of these issues are discussed in Wignaraja, G., A. Prizzon, J. Tyson and D. W. te Velde (2018), Asia in 2025: Development Prospects and Challenges for Middle-Income Countries, London: Overseas Development Institute. https://www.odi.org/publications/11202-asia-2025-development-prospects-a...

About the Speaker

Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja is the Executive Director at the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies (LKI) in Sri Lanka.

He concurrently serves as a Member of the Monetary Policy Consultative Committee of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Prime Minister’s Task Force on the Indian Ocean.
He is also a Senior Research Associate at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in London. In a career spanning over 25 years in the UK and Asia, Ganeshan has had senior roles including the Director of Research at the ADB Institute in Tokyo and Global Head of Trade and Competitiveness at Maxwell Stamp PLC in London. His expertise covers trade and competitiveness, global supply chains and SMEs, infrastructure connectivity, development finance and macroeconomic policy. He has published 19 books on these topics and successfully led teams to deliver complex projects in over 30 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. Ganeshan has a DPhil in economics from Oxford University.