Pakistan Project Rountable on Pakistan Elections 2013: Likely Scenarios

Concept Note

Election to Pakistan’s National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies are scheduled for May 11. The elections are taking place under a caretaker Prime Minister and care taker Chief Ministers have been appointed in all the four provinces to ensure a free and fair elections. The Election Commission is assisted by host of agencies to scrutiny the nomination paper and ensure that convicts and loan defaulters are barred from contesting. Filing of nomination paper was controversial as the Returning Officers chose to interview some of the veteran politicians to assess their knowledge of Islam creating a public uproar. Nearly a fifth of the 85 million Pakistanis registered to vote in the upcoming elections are between 18 and 25 years old, and that another 15pc are between 26 and 30. For the first time Pakistanis living abroad are also going to vote.

There are number of political parties that are contesting this election. The PML-N has decided to fight the battle alone as it is confident to get more seats in Punjab on its own. It is still trying to form alliance with the BNP (Mengal) and PkMAP in Balochistan and with JUI-F in Khyber Pakhtukhwa. In Sindh it has formed alliance with 10 smaller political parties. Similarly the PPP has forged electoral understanding with PML-Q in Punjab. The contest is going to be very close between the PML-N, PPP and its partner PML-Q and the Pakistan Tehrik Insaf in Punjab. The PTI has not filed any candidate in Sindh and Balochistan. Though the MMA has been revived under the leadership of JUI-F, parties like the Jamaat Islami and JUI-S have formed a separate alliance.

As the elections draw closer, it would be significant to have a discussion on the possible political scenario in Pakistan and how the future political configuration looks like. To understand the situation better the discussion will focus on: