The present paper discusses about the new great instability in Afghanistan which had emerged after 2001. It builds four scenarios by looking into the impending American withdrawal from Afghanistan and states that for President Obama, a stable and democratic government is most desirable but it would prefer to leave it after building a coalition government with local actors as the US is more worried about a stable government in Afghanistan, not necessarily a democratic one.
The US needs to take direct charge of the peace talks prong of strategy to meet the mid-2011 deadline of beginning its troops withdrawal as well as to enable NATO departure by 2014.
International security analysts must begin a discussion on how reductions in the U.S. defence budget will influence the nature of bilateral security relationships across Asia
Given the fragility of ISAF’s southern lines of communication passing through Pakistan, India could consider offering a passage through its territory as a meaningful alternative.
India must stay engaged, keep a low profile, earn the goodwill of the Afghan people through its multifaceted assistance programme, and stay away from any costly misadventure in the security sector.
Sino-US rivalry has been simmering for the past many years, as China has replaced Russia in the American scheme of things as its most potent adversary.
India has been fairly successful in firewalling the radical blowback emanating from Pakistan in the past and need not be overly worried about the impending US withdrawal.
During the last dozen years or so, the Indian and American governments have instituted broad policy changes aimed at turning their bilateral relationship into some form of strategic partnership.
The New START, its positives, and the imponderables
The durability of the New START will depend largely on how both sides value it as a means towards disarmament rather than for strategic competition.