The uncertainty brought about by the pandemic would at best have a limited and short-term impact on the US-Iran hostilities. For the time being, the chances of escalation may be limited but the rivalry is here to stay.
The abidance to ceasefire does not mean an end to the conflict, but it surely would work as a confidence-building measure, at least for now, to address the bigger challenge of
coronavirus.
The COVID-19 crisis would severely impact the four countries at the social, political, economic and humanitarian levels, as these states were already facing multi-vector exigencies at the time of the pandemic’s outbreak.
As the COVID-19 cases continue to rise, the key priorities for the GCC countries are to contain the spread of the pandemic, maintain the flow of trade across their borders and preserve their economies from adverse impacts.
While it is unlikely that the Iranian regime will be able to weather the COVID-19 crisis without the support of the international community, its efforts at seeking international support largely remain a work in progress.
The political divisions and economic challenges facing the country have complicated the government’s response to the pandemic, putting the population at risk and threatening to undermine the popularity of President Erdogan.
The situation in Persian Gulf has been on the boil with several tit-for-tat actions raising the chances of a direct confrontation. However, Iran will be cautious in choosing an all-out war given its vulnerabilities against the US military might.
The September 14 strikes targeting Saudi oil refineries demonstrated an exceptional level of mission accomplishment that is possible with drones today. In the coming times, drones are likely to get an increasing share in augmenting the decisive role of air power.
US-Iran Hostilities in Times of Pandemic
The uncertainty brought about by the pandemic would at best have a limited and short-term impact on the US-Iran hostilities. For the time being, the chances of escalation may be limited but the rivalry is here to stay.