Water may not become a catalyst for a direct conflict, but China could leverage Tibet’s water as a politico-military tool vis-à-vis other riparian states. As the economies of India and China grow, both are bound to treat water as a strategic commodity.

A number of Chinese border intrusions across the Line of Actual Control have been reported in recent months. One such event near Mount Gya in the Chumar sector of Ladakh saw Chinese troops intruding 1.5 kilometres inside Indian territory and writing “China” on the rocks with red paint. The intrusion was first noticed by an Indian patrol team on July 31, 2009. An earlier incident of Chinese intrusion in this area reportedly took place on June 21st, when two Chinese M1 helicopters violated the Indian airspace and air dropped canned food at Chumar.

Referring to India’s recent troop deployment in Arunachal Pradesh and the construction of a new airbase at Tezpur, Assam, Zhang Haizjou writing in China Daily on June 10, 2009 states that “India is attempting to extend its control over a disputed border area…” Similarly, Li Hongmei writing in the People’s Daily has held India responsible for hiking tension over Arunachal Pradesh by harbouring “awe, vexation, envy and jealousy – in the face of its giant neighbour” China.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee's recent outburst that China poses a security challenge indicates a dangerous ambiguity in India’s China policy. The fact that Mukherjee has aired such a view after his intense and long diplomatic rapport with the leadership of that country needs to be noted seriously. It is not that China has not been a puzzle to Indian strategic thinkers. Even former Defence Minister George Fernandes considered China as India’s number one enemy, but his views were transformed after he paid an official visit to Beijing.

The two recent glorious achievements - the Olympics and spacewalk mission – seem to have transcended China to a new global height with wide implications for the world’s strategic balance. From all accounts, analysts suggest that China will not only survive but has also gained from the recent global financial meltdown.

Let the fact speak for itself. China was not happy about India gaining the waiver in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and it played the role of a spoiler till such time it could. The Indian Government now feels betrayed. Perhaps India expected China’s reciprocity in exchange for its gracious support for the successful tour of the Olympic Torch. Indeed, it was naiveté that led India to believe Chinese rhetoric.