India-China Relations

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  • Abhijit Rathod asked: With new generation of Chinese leadership taking over, are India-China relations likely to change?

    Avinash Godbole: India-China relations are not likely to change because of the leadership transition in China. First, it will take a couple of years for the new generation of leaders to consolidate their position in terms of their individual leadership styles. Second, China’s leadership has taken to a consensus-based decision-making process, thereby eliminating the chance of any radically different approach. It seems that they have a settled perception on how to handle the India question. In any case, India-China relations have become too multi-pronged to change in a short span of time. Third, India remains a low priority for the Chinese leadership. Their first headache as far as foreign affairs are concerned is the US, followed by Japan, the Koreas, and other neighbours in the immediate neighbourhood of South East Asia; India comes after this. Fourth, and this is perhaps the most important, domestic issues like corruption, governance delivery, inequality, rule of law, and poverty are likely to pre-occupy the new leadership for quite sometime, at least as seen from the statements that came out of the 18th Party Congress.

    China’s Territorial Claim on Arunachal Pradesh: Alternative Scenarios 2032

    China’s Territorial Claim on Arunachal Pradesh: Alternative Scenarios 2032

    This Occasional Paper analyzes the Chinese territorial claim from futuristic perspective by identifying three drivers of uncertainty that has bearing on future Chinese behaviour, namely, Chinese regime stability and nationalism; the Tibet factor and internal developments in Arunachal Pradesh. Based on the interactive interplay between the three drivers, the author offers four alternative scenarios with regard to China's territorial claim in 2032.

    The Second India-China SED

    The SED is an important forum that can render valuable service to the cause of greater economic cooperation and work like an effective confidence building measure.

    November 30, 2012

    What did China Gain at the End of the Fighting in November 1962?

    By first crossing the McMahon Line and then retreating north beyond the McMahon Line on the conclusion of hostilities, the Chinese only served to further reinforce the validity of the McMahon Line as the international frontier.

    November 21, 2012

    India and the Outgoing Chinese Leadership: Change with Continuity

    A noticeable aspect of the close political relationship between India and China is the fact that in spite of changes in regimes the relationship has continued to grow.

    November 14, 2012

    Chinese Aircraft Industry’s New J-31 Stealth Fighter: Implications for India

    Instead of inducting another fourth generation aircraft under the MMRCA programme, it may be better to replace the MMRCA with a mix of F-35s and increased numbers of Su-30MKI and LCAs.

    November 09, 2012

    The Likely Composition of the Central Military Commission of the 18th Party Congress of China

    There are major changes in the CMC, with eight out of 12 members likely to bow out of office. The cascading effect on the change of guard in the General Departments and the operational units will keep the PLA unsettled for some time

    October 31, 2012

    The Rise of China: Implications for India by Harsh V. Pant ; Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior: Growing Power and Alarm by George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham; A Resurgent China: South Asian Perspectives by S.D. Muni

    It is a commonplace to observe that the emergence of China as a great power is the most significant geopolitical phenomenon of the current decade. However, the implications of the ‘rise’ of China—a useful, if misleading shorthand for a complex historical development—are far from evident and have attracted a full-throated debate. For India, in particular, China’s rise is likely to have important and far-reaching ramifications. Five decades after the 1962 war, the prospect of having a great power in our immediate neighbourhood continues to unnerve most Indian observers.

    October 2012

    Enduring Legacy of 1962: Cementing the Conflict of Perceptions in Sino-Indian Ties

    Fifty years since the 1962 war, India and China have moved on to become world powers with engagement and competition characterizing their relationship in keeping with the rules of realpolitik. Both sides argue that the past has been forgotten, yet the border dispute remains unresolved. Despite the rapprochement and robust economic engagement undertaken, the relationship has a constant undercurrent of tension and is often described as fragile.

    October 2012

    The Legacy of 1962 and China’s India Policy

    This article will argue that the legacy of the 1962 Sino-Indian War continues to affect China’s policy towards India even today. The three factors that led to China’s decision in 1962 to attack India—the status of Tibet, the militarization of their unresolved border and fears of containment—are present even today, albeit in slightly modified forms. This is not to argue that another Sino-Indian War is imminent because the larger strategic context within which China’s leaders took the decision to attack India in 1962 has changed.

    October 2012

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